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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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