A mere 60 days in the past when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
