Daily Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures
The average count of daily killings monthly in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative statistics. But, security analysts have warned that homicide data might not indicate enhanced national safety.
Notable Drop in Daily Averages
There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the head of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.
“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.
Recent Context and Government Plan
Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.
That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.
At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it daily.”
The key pillars of the President's safety strategy encompass:
- Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
- Enhanced coordination between various authorities.
Expert Caution and Data Concerns
But, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.
“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.
“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the will to properly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may hide days when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.
“Using the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.
Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress
Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.
“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.
Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger
Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.
Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.
“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.