‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a fifth of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say cylinders are being redirected to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the war.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being allocated for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.