Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
